February 1, 2002

China Political And Social 2002

Speaking Notes

CHINA POLITICAL AND SOCIAL 2002
Speaking Notes
WHAT ARE THE POLITICAL AND SOCIAL WORLDS OF CHINA AT THE
OUTSET OF 2002, AS SEEN FROM BEIJING? ECONOMICS AND TRADE
ONLY TELL A PART OF THE STORY.
FOR BEHIND ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INTERNATIONALIZATION VIA
WTO MEMBERSHIP, THERE IS THE DAILY LIFE OF ONE BILLION, TWO
HUNDRED AND EIGHTYFOUR MILLION CHINESE PEOPLE, AND THE
GOVERNMENT WHICH RULES THEM. THEY FACE IMMENSE,
SEEMINGLY INTRACTABLE PROBLEMS, SOME BROUGHT ABOUT BY
THE VERY ECONOMIC EXPANSION THAT THE WORLD CELEBRATES.
THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS THAT NOT ALL CHINESE ARE
BENEFITTING FROM THE EXPANSIVE OPENING TO THE WORLD OF
THE MIDDLE KINGDOM – INDEED, FAR FROM IT. THE EXCITEMENT
GENERATED BY THE HIGH RISES IN SHANGHAI AND THE FASHION
SHOWS IN BEIJING DISTORT OTHER REALITIES.
ALLOW ME TO LIST A FEW OF THE PROBLEMS THAT THE CHINESE
PEOPLE FACE EVERY DAY, AND AS WE SPEAK…

• MIGRANT WORKERS: AS ALWAYS WHEN LOOKING AT CHINA’S VAST
  POPULATION, NUMBERS VARY, FROM 80 MILLION TO 160 MILLION.
  THESE WORKERS ARE LEFT UNEMPLOYED OR UNDEREMPLOYED
  CHINA POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SPRING 2002 2
  IN THEIR RURAL COMMUNITIES. THEY LIVE A MARGINAL EXISTENCE
  IN CITIES. THEY CAN BE SUBJECT TO THE MINISTRATIONS OF
  OFTEN CORRUPT, DISHONEST AND ABUSIVE EMPLOYMENT
  COMPANIES; AND THEY HAVE MINIMAL RIGHTS TO SOCIAL
  SERVICES FOR THEMSELVES OR EDUCATION FOR THEIR
  CHILDREN. WHEREVER THEY ARE REGISTERED, THEY DO NOT
  HAVE RIGHTS TO LIVE ELSEWHERE. THEY ARE ESSENTIALLY STUCK
  WHERE THEY ARE.
• RURAL POVERTY: THE WORLD BANK STATES THAT 200 MILLION
  CHINESE LIVE ON LESS THAN THE EQUIVALENT OF 1$ PER DAY,
  PEGGED AT Y8.28. TODAY, THAT CAN BUY YOU ONE SIMPLE MEAL
  FROM A FOOD STALL IN BEIJING, OR FOR AN EMERGING MIDDLE
  FAMILY, THE COST OF RENTING A VIDEO FOR THE EVENING.
  AT THIS TIME THE INCOME GAP BETWEEN URBAN AND RURAL
  AREAS CONTINUES TO INCREASE, WHILE THE AVAILABILITY OF
  SERVICES – EDUCATION, HEALTH, INFRASTRUCTURE – IN RURAL
  AREAS DECREASES. IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT ONE OFTEN
  READS, EVEN IN CHINESE NEWSPAPERS, OF SERIOUS RURAL
  DISCONTENT AND EVEN RIOTS.
• CORRUPTION: ACCORDING TO THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT’S
  OWN STATEMENTS, THE PROBLEM IS PERVASIVE, AND DOES NOT
  SPARE OFFICIALS HIGH OR LOW. IN ADDITION TO THE ‘TAX’ THAT
  CORRUPTION IMPOSES ON AN UNDEFINABLE SWATH OF
  ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES, IT EXERCISES A
  CHINA POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SPRING 2002 3
  CORROSIVE EFFECT ON PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF GOVERNMENT ,
  AND ESPECIALLY, THE PROBITY OF THE CHINESE COMMUNIST
  PARTY AND ITS LEADERS. AS CHEN YUN IS QUOTED AS SAYING:
  ‘NOT FIGHTING CORRUPTIONS WILL DESTROY THE COUNTRY;
  FIGHTING CORRUPTION WILL DESTROY THE PARTY.’ WHERE ALL
  THIS WILL LEAD IS VERY UNCERTAIN.
  HUMAN RIGHTS AND DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENT: IT IS
  INDISPUTABLE THAT THE CHINESE PEOPLE HAVE ENJOYED AN
  INCREASINGLY LARGE DEGREE OF PERSONAL AND ECONOMIC
  FREEDOM SINCE THE 1978 REFORMS. LOOSE FORMS OF CIVIL
  SOCIETY ORGANIZATIONS ARE INCREASINGLY TOLERATED, IN
  SOME CASES EVEN ENCOURAGED TO FILL THE VACCUM AS THE
  STATE RETREATS FROM THE PROVISION OF RELIABLE SOCIAL
  SERVICES. SO, BRAVO FOR ECONOMIC RIGHTS.
  BUT POLITICAL AND CIVIL RIGHTS REMAIN, FOR ALL INTENTS AND
  PURPOSES AND INDEED AS A PRACTICAL MATTER, EXTREMELY
  CONSTRAINED: THE RULE OF LAW AND DUE PROCESS ARE
  GAINING RHETORICAL SUPPORT IN SOME CIRCLES, BUT THE
  PRACTICE IS EXTREMELY UNEVEN, JUDGES CONSIDER
  THEMSELVES TO BE SERVANTS OF THE STATE, AND IN ANY EVENT
  CAN ONLY BUT RARELY FORCE IMPLEMENTATION OF THEIR
  DECISIONS WHEN THESE GO AGAINST THE INTERESTS OF OFFICE
  HOLDERS. PRESS FREEDOM IS INCREASING, BUT MANY AREAS
  REMAIN STRICTLY TABOO: WRITINGS CRITICAL OF THE CHINESE
  COMMUNIST PARTY, ON CHINA’S SENIOR LEADERS, TAIWANESE
  CHINA POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SPRING 2002 4
  INDEPENDENCE, FALUNG GONG, RELIGIOUS FREEDOM, ETHNIC
  DIVISIONS, AMONG OTHER, VARYING SUBJECTS ARE STRICTLY
  FORBIDDENT AND VIOLATIONS CAN RESULT IN LENGTHY
  IMPRISONMENT.
  DENG XIAOPING’S FAMOUS DICTUM – ‘WENDING YADAO
  YIQIE’ – STABILITY OVERIDES EVERYTHING – REMAINS AT THE
  CENTER OF CCP THINKING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEFINE
  THE PARTY WELL AFTER THE 16 TH PARTY CONGRESS IN
  SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER, SUGGESTING THAT CHINA’S
  LEADERSHIP IS NOT YET READY TO ABANDON THE LENINIST
  ORIENTATION OF ITS BIRTH. THE PARTY MAY EXPERIMENT WITH
  ELECTIONS AT THE VILLAGE LEVEL, CONDUCT LIVERLIER
  SELECTION PROCESSES FOR DELEGATES TO PARTY
  CONGRESSES, CONSIDER INCREASING THE SCOPE OF
  INDEPENDENT ENQUIRY AND ACTION AT THE LEVEL OF PROVINCIAL
  AND NATIONAL PEOPLE’S CONGRESSES. CONDUCT PUBLIC
  OPINION POLLS AND SEEKE VIEW OF NON-PARTY INTELLECTUALS
  AND EVEN FOREIGNERS, BUT THERE IS NO SIGN THAT IT INTENDS
  TO REDUCE, IN ANY MEANINGFUL WAY, IT MONOPOLY ON POWER.
  THESE REALITIES – AS SIGNIFICANT IN THEMSLEVES AS THE
  ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT I DESCRIBED AT THE
  OUSET – CAUSIONS US AGAINST MAKING TOO MANY STRAIGHT LINE
  PROJECTIONS ABOUT CHINA’S SHORT-TERM FUTURE.
  CHINA POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SPRING 2002 5
  STILL, IT’S WORTH MAKING THE POINT THAT CHINA IS AN IMMENSE
  COUNTRY, WITH A QUARTER OF THE GLOBE’S POPULATION,
  GEOGRAPHICALLY ALMOST THE SAME SIZE AS CANADA, A
  COUNTRY, AS WE ARE CONSTANTLY REMINDED, WITH 5,000 YEARS
  OF HISTORICAL AND CULTURAL BAGGAGE. YOU CAN FIND IMMENSE
  PROGRESS IN SOME GOEGRAPHICAL AREAS AND IN THE
  COMPETENCE OF GOVERNANCE, AND INTRACTABLE PROBLEMS IN
  OTHERS.
  TO THINK OF CHINA PRIMARILY AS A PROTO-POWER WITH
  STUNNING NEW CITIES, MANDARIN POPULAR MUSIC – AKA MANDO-
  POP – SMOOTH-TALKING ENGLISH-SPEAKING CADRES AND
  BUSINESSPEOPLE IS A SERIOUS ERROR. SO IS CONSIDERING THE
  CHINESE AS PREDOMINENTLY A DESPARATELHY POOR AND
  MALIGNED PEOPLE FRONTED BY THE WORLD’S BEST PR FIRM IS
  EQUALLY MISLEADING. WHAT CAN BE SAID QUITE CATEGORICALLY
  IS THAT, IN THESE EARLY YEARS OF THE NEW CENTURY, CHINA IS
  POSITIONED, DETERMINED AND SKILLED TO PURSUE ITS RISE TO
  POWER STATUS, AND IMPACT VERY SIGNFICANTLY ON THE WORLD.
  AMBASSADOR JOSEPH CARON